Yay! So the Screen Actors Guild Awards are this Sunday. This is another award that’s important because it can be a great indicator as to who’s going to win the Oscar. But I’m not going to talk about the Movie portion in this post. I am going to tackle the TV awards, which I found much harder to predict.
The SAG Awards are weird and different from the Emmys in that they don’t separate the supporting performances from the lead performances. So, when you read the nominations you’ll see Jane Lynch compete against Tina Fey in the same category. That’s what makes predicting even tougher, but also funner. So…for these predictions I will do a “will win”, “should win”, and, as a bonus, my pick for the actor that should’ve been nominated. However, just because I say a particular actor should be nominated, does not at all mean they should win. OK…I’m being wordy. Let’s just get on with it!
For a full list of nominations, click here.
MALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will win: This category is filled with new supporting performers from breakout hits like Glee and Modern Family. I honestly think Ed O’Neill’s nomination is a shock, and pretty much the guild’s way of saying FU to the Emmys for snubbing him. I think the nomination is the win for him. I don’t think Steve Carell’s going to win until next year, when it will be his last year eligible, so he’s out for right now. A few weeks ago I probably would have gone with Alec Baldwin, since he’s won the last 4 years, but I think this is Chris Colfer’s (Glee) year, with TV’s most buzzed about storyline this season. So, I think Colfer will win.
Should win: This is literally Baldwin’s best year on 30 Rock, so I wouldn’t mind him winning a 5th award. But, I have to root for the little guy! Go Chris Colfer!!!
Shoulda been nominated: Um…where is Jim Parsons in all this? Ridiculous.
FEMALE ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will win: This is such a strong category. Nearly all 5 of these ladies have the potential of winning (and deservedly so!). Tina Fey, in my opinion, has also had a strong year on 30 Rock, and she’s won for the last 3 years. Edie Falco did win the Emmy for Nurse Jackie, but I feel like both her and the show has lost a lot of buzz since then. Maybe it’s just me. Between Sofia Vergara’s SAG nom and Golden Globe (and the Ed O’Neill controversy), she’s officially become a huge threat for Jane Lynch come Emmy time. However, I still think Jane Lynch (Glee) will prevail this Sunday.
Should win: However, I would be ecstatic if Betty White won for her hilarious work in the underrated fun TV Land sitcom Hot in Cleveland.
Shoulda been nominated: C’mon guys! You all know Sarah Silverman (The Sarah Silverman Program) was hilarious last year. Give her a break! Her show was cancelled!
MALE ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will win: Let’s be real here: Michael C. Hall (Dexter) and Hugh Laurie (House) aint gettin’ the trophy! The Emmys love Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) but it seems like every other award show hates him (even The Saturn Awards). This comes down between Mad Men’s Jon Hamm and Steve Buscemi. Boardwalk Empire predictably made a big splash at the Golden Globes, but I’m less sure when it comes to the SAG Awards. I don’t think SAG Awards go for new shows as much as the Golden Globes. So I’m just gonna go with my gut, and say Jon Hamm will get this one. One, because this is apparently his best season and performance. And two, because he’s never won before, and this would be a perfect time to award him. I really hope I don’t regret this decision.
Should win: However, as amazing as Jon Hamm was, he just has not come close to Bryan Cranston. Sorry! (PS…I haven’t seen Boardwalk Empire, but I am a big fan of Steve Buscemi, but I can’t in all honesty root for a show I haven’t seen.)
Shoulda been nominated: While I keep with this “Breaking Bad theme”, it would have been so cool for Aaron Paul to have nominated for his crazy work on the show.
FEMALE ACTOR IN DRAMA SERIES
Will win: Even though Kyra Sedgwick won the Emmy last fall, I still think this race is between Elizabeth Moss for her quiet work on Mad Men, and Julianna Margulies for her straight-faced pale exterior in The Good Wife. If voters are going to vote for Jon Hamm, I see no reason why they won’t complement that and vote for Elizabeth Moss also.
Should win: I think honestly, I’d be happy with SVU’s Mariska Hargitay winning. One, she’s been nominated for the SAG a billion times, but she’s never won. And two, this was such an amazing season for her character. Hargitay doesn’t have the luxury of perfect story arcs, crying, and excessive emotional shouting. Hargitay takes what she gets and makes a real great performance out of it. I’d be happiest if she won.
Shoulda been nominated: Let’s just say, if Sandra Oh (Grey’s) is snubbed for the Emmy this year, I will go to the Emmy offices and bust a nut. The big one!
MALE ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE
Will win: Do I even need to explain myself? Edgar Ramirez for Carlos is definitely a lock for the Emmy this year, but there is one more award that Al Pacino hasn’t won for You Don’t Know Jack, and it’s this one!
Should win: I don’t really…I guess Al Pacino. (Although, to spice things up, I wouldn’t mind seeing Edgar Ramirez, aka dark horse, win!)
Shoulda been nominated: David Strathairn was disgustingly snubbed, especially considering his 3 female Temple Grandin costars were nominated in the other category. What were the voters smoking?
FEMALE ACTOR IN TV MOVIE
Will win: This is a weird, weak category. It’s almost like they purposely wanted to give the award to Claire Danes (Temple Grandin). Why are they bothering with nominations? Just give her the award already. (When Danes does win, I hope the real Temple Grandin makes another appearance and gives one of her famous all star hugs!)
Should win: I’d be fine with any of the Temple Grandin ladies winning…but it really should honestly go to Claire Danes – one of the best female performances I have ever seen (TV or film).
Shoulda been nominated: I hope Jennifer Love Hewitt can get an Emmy nomination for her role in the Lifetime movie The Client List.
ENSEMBLE IN A COMEDY SERIES
Will win: This a very solid list of nominations. There isn’t a sour apple in the entire bunch. Again, I think The Office has a better chance at winning next year with Steve Carell’s last year of eligibility than this year. Many people might shun Hot in Cleveland, but the fact that the program got a nomination to begin with shows that the actors obviously love the cast. I don’t think they’re completely out of the race. That being said, however, it really comes down to between Glee and Modern Family. Glee has a sparkly, fun, talented cast. But I think the smaller, more centered, consistent, traditional Modern Family cast will win. Besides, it’s been a while since a family sitcom was honored: this would be a perfect opportunity for voters to do that, and I think they realize that.
Should win: Honestly, I really hope Glee doesn’t win…so anyone but Glee. (I love Glee and I’d be happy with Chris Colfer and Jane Lynch winning…but so many cast members have been throughly underused, it would be silly for the show to win an Ensemble prize.) But my cockles would be warmed if the four ladies from Hot in Cleveland got the prize!
Shoulda been nominated: Best ensemble cast on television hands down: Cougar Town.
ENSEMBLE IN A DRAMA SERIES
Will win: This really comes down to between Boardwalk Empire and Mad Men. This is tough considering I haven’t even seen Boardwalk Empire. I’m not sure how strong the cast is. However, the show does boast semi-big names like Steve Buscemi, Kelly MacDonald and Michael Shannon. But, I’ve honestly heard more praise going towards Mad Men. And the SAG Awards don’t experiment as much as the Golden Globes. They don’t often award new shows their first season. (Glee is an exception. Not even award favorites like 30 Rock or Mad Men won for their first year.) Therefore, I think the actors are going to stick with Mad Men for another year.
Should win: However, the best ensemble on television is the sharp, edged The Good Wife. Last season, the show clearly centered around Alicia Florek. This season, however, the show has grown as a true ensemble. I think it deserves the award this year (and not only because it’s my favorite show ever.)
Shoulda been nominated: It’s baffling that Friday Night Lights is once again snubbed. But, also…don’t judge…but Pretty Little Liars? Individually, the four actresses may not be amazing actors…but I think they work together really well…
So those are my predix! For the Movie Award predictions, click here.