Last year, when I did this post for the 2012 Emmys, I actually predicted most of the locks right. The only ones I got wrong was Parks and Recreation for Series and John Slattery for Supporting Actor. However, I was still very weary about making a post this year because…for some reason, I feel like we’re in store for some really big surprises this summer. With some shows finishing out their tenures (and some new shows coming out), it’s tough figuring which shows and people are “safe.” The truth is…no one’s ever truly safe. Last year, everyone and their mother predicted Parks and Recreation and Louie for series nominations, and maybe even wins. Instead, they were surprisingly overturned by the likes of Veep (yay!) and Girls. So…it may be a bit silly to make predictions this early in the season…but, the Emmy bug is itching so…here goes.
Just a reminder, here are some ground rules:
1. This is not an OFFICIAL prediction list. I actually don’t make concrete predictions until voting’s over. I’m just going to name the 1 or 2 people in each category that, no matter what, will most likely get a nomination. That’s all…
2. I never consider new shows and new actors “locks.” Even if it’s PAINFULLY obvious, I leave them out for now. Remember when we all thought Luck would dominate? Exactly. (Side note: are there really any new series this year that are major contenders this year? Is House of Cards that big of a threat?)
3. …I think that’s it, actually.
OK. Here are the locks for the 2013 Emmys as of April 29th…
Lead Actor: With Larry David out of the way this year, we have one slot open…a slot that will probably be filled by either Matt LeBlanc (Episodes) or Jason Bateman (Arrested Development). However, this a category that seldom sees much movement so…Alec Baldwin (for his last season), Jim Parsons, Jon Cryer (last year’s winner) and Louie CK remain the four strongest contenders this year. Don Cheadle is very much in the game but…I can’t help thinking that last year might have been a “one time thing.” I guess we’ll see.
Lead Actress: She probably won’t win, but Tina Fey is most definitely getting in for her last season of 30 Rock. Last year’s winner and reliable Emmy favorite Julia Louis Dreyfuss is also in (and might even win again if the rest of season 2 is as good as these first 3 episodes). Parks and Recreation may be losing stock, but the likable Amy Poehler should stick around. And, last, I think America’s sweetheart Lena Dunham should have another chance of Emmy gold after being routinely snubbed last year. There aren’t many new contenders in this category, so we might very well see the same nominations we got last year. Newbie Mindy Kaling could squeeze in though…but again, I’m not considering newbies (not that I that I think she’s much of a lock anyway).
Supporting Actor: Is it too easy to assume that all four Modern Family dudes will be back this year? It’s tough because Arrested Development could bring a couple supporting actors of their own…and that would still be a perfect six. But still…supporting actor is tighter than you may think. I haven’t watched a single episode of MF this year so I have no inkling who’s been standing out. But…I think previous winners Eric Stonestreet and Ty Burrell are safe. If this is going to be the year that voters think outside the “Modern Family box.” then I believe those two will be left standing.
Supporting Actress: Because there are only two adult women in the Modern Family cast, I think it’ll be easier for Julie Bowen and Sofia Vergara to get in easily. As for everyone else? Good luck. If Jane Krakowski hadn’t been egregiously snubbed last year, she would definitely be a lock because it was 30 Rock‘s final season. However, because Emmy voters usually play the “Once you’re out, you’re always out” game, it’ll be a tough road for Jane K. Jessica Walter (AD) may also be a contender and could even win if given the chance. And last year’s surprise nominees Mayim Bialik and Merrit Weaver are still in the game…even though I’m quite confident both will be knocked out come July. (Hey…a Girls gotta eat.)
Series: There are three locks this year: Modern Family because…well…it’s Modern Family, 30 Rock (because their last season was universally acclaimed unlike the last seasons of past Emmy bait shows like Will and Grace. ) and Girls. Everything else is in a bubble. For Veep, it’s too early to say…although I would love to see it get nominated again. For Arrested Development….it’s even more too early because none of the episodes have premiered yet and, well, they could in theory be crap (also, we don’t quite know how voters will react to online television being in contention). Big Bang Theory remains the highest rated comedy on television. I haven’t watched it all this season (actually there are a lot of comedy shows I’ve missed on this season for one reason or another)…but I’ve heard even the most diehard fans say how uneven this season’s been. Louie SHOULD get in…but it’s last 2 (IMO superior) seasons have been snubbed so maybe we should just give it up. It’s also the last season of The Office but…unless the very last episode is spectacular, I’m not seeing right now. And, for the fun of it, let’s not leave out New Girls, Parks and Rec, Episodes, and Enlightened, k?
Lead Actor: The likes of Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom) and Kevin Spacey (House of Cards) have been getting a good amount of buzz…but they’re new shows so…Also, The Newsroom is a hella polarizing. Just sayin’. Anyway, I think the magic three (Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm, Damian Lewis) will pop up. Steve Buscemi is a little shaky just because Boardwalk Empire isn’t a “hot button” show anymore (at least, that’s what it seems like to me…BTW, I don’t follow the show so maybe I’m wrong), but I still think it’s a lock. I think those 4 definitely have a better chance than Hugh Bonneville and Timothy Olyphant. Michael C. Hall will probably get a nomination, but I wouldn’t consider him a lock persay.
Lead Actress: Once again, I’m not going to put Elizabeth Moss (Mad Men) on the list because there’s still that slight chance she’ll switch to supporting (thus giving Jessica Pare a better chance to prevail). Who knows what’s up with Moss or her character or how long we’ll follow her this season? So…she’s not a lock. Call me strange but, like Lead Actor, I think there are 4 locks: Julianna Margulies, Claire Danes, Glenn Close (if she could manage a nomination last year, she’ll probably get in again this year for the last season of Damages) and Michelle Dockery (Golden Globe and SAG nominee who definitely stood out this last season of Downton Abbey). With Kathy Bates out, there is pretty much one slot open. Will it go to Kerry Washington? Connie Britton? Jessica Pare? Mariska Hargitay?
Supporting Actor: The Supporting Drama Actor category is looser than a…something that’s loose. Yeah, Aaron Paul and Peter Dinklage are virtual locks. But outside that…it’s anyone’s game. I mean, let’s remember, last year…two guys from Downton Abbey got in. You never know what the voters are thinking. I do believe Mandy Pantinkin (Homeland) and Jonathon Banks (Breaking Bad) are probably the next up…but they’ve never been nominated before [for these roles] so…again…very loose.
Supporting Actress: The Good Wife is in an interesting position. For the last three years, they’ve been able to hold on to those 2 supporting actress slots. But this year their hurt by a couple things. One, is Archie Panjabi’s really bad story line during the 1st half of the season. And two, the show as a whole being snubbed series which signifies that voters may be letting go of the series slowly but surely. Will these otherwise amazing actresses be the next victims? Only time will tell. Right now, they’re not locks. Maggie Smith and Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad) definitely are. (Hayden Panettiere FYC).
Series: It’s strange. All 6 nominees from last year could get in this year. In fact, that’s probably what I would predict if I were making a real prediction right now. However, for the sake of me not being bold, I’ll say that the only locks right now are Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and last year’s winner Homeland (even though critics and fans alike were very critical of the latter half of the season). Downton Abbey could be the token period piece / network show this category needs but…I dunno, it’s not everyone’s favorite show. And, hey, The Good Wife could come back and take the spot from Game of Thrones or Boardwalk Empire. Maybe? Probably not. House of Cards, The Newsroom, The Americans, and even Nashville are also contenders. But, again, I think it’ll probably just be the same 6 as last year…
Cool. I got that out of my system. Did I leave out any BIG contenders? Am I underestimating the power of Malibu County? What about Glee? Is that still a thing? Would it be so totally awesome if Shameless got any love besides Joan Cusack? Sound off below.