So a few days ago I ranked all the nominees and gave my opinion as to who should win in each category. Well, now that all the ballots have been mailed in, it is now time to reveal my FINAL FINAL predictions. I’m not going to lie, some of the categories were difficult. I think I’m having trouble figuring out whether the Academy will fully embrace Argo…or throw us a curve ball and show their support for early front runner Lincoln. Throughout this award season, with every passing award show, Argo’s stock seems to get higher, while Lincoln loses more and more steam. But…Argo didn’t get a Director nomination. And, anyway, who’s going to win Director? Will it go to Spielberg or someone else? Well, anyway, no more questions. I just have to go for it. And…well…whatever happens happens.
For a full list of the nominations, click here.
Let’s start from the bottom and work our way to the top! No ranking. Just plain, simple, “bold” predictions.
Best Live Action Short Film: I don’t know anything about these short film categories. It seems like all these films have already won many other awards. But…I have to do this anyway. Buzkashi Boys.
Best Documentary Short: Inocente.
Best Animated Short: Paperman…although Adam and Dog also seems like a possibility because it’s weird and boring. (JK)
Best Visual Effects: Usually the film nominated for Best Picture gets this one, so I think it’ll go to Life of Pi. All three Lord of the Rings films won this award, so voters may want to continue the tradition and vote for The Hobbit…but I doubt it.
Best Sound Mixing: I think Les Miserables will take this one because I think having the singers sing live on film was very daring and effective and despite some wonky notes (Crowe, Jackman, maybe even Seyfried), I wouldn’t have changed that for the world. Maybe this is turning into a “wishful thinking” prediction. Although the last two big musical contenders (Chicago, Dreamgirls) won this award.
Best Sound Editing: I wanna say voters will be weird and choose Skyfall…but, nah, Life of Pi all the way.
Best Song: It’s going to be Skyfall. It has to be Skyfall! I will cry if it’s not Skyfall. I love when Adele makes award speeches!
Best Score: I think this is another “wishful thinking” prediction but…I think Mychael Danna of Life of Pi will repeat his Golden Globe victory here. Of course, 5 time Academy Award winner John Williams (Lincoln) also has a strong shot…especially if voters decide to really embrace Lincoln where so many other award shows haven’t.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables.
Best Costume Design: It’s the battle of the Snow Whites! And who will win?…Anna Karenina…
Can I make a note in saying that I LOVE the Costume Category because, more than any other category, the voters don’t care if the movie isn’t great. I mean – were Alice in Wonderland or Marie Antoinette great films? Eh…but the costumes are AMAZING!
Best Cinematography: Remember when Avatar beat The Hurt Locker? Yeah…another one for Life of Pi.
Best Production Design: I don’t like how they changed the name of this category. I liked “Art Direction” because of the emphasis on Art. Anyway…I just think Life of Pi will do well with these technical awards.
Best Documentary Feature: The beauty of Oscar predictions is taking risks. I’m going to do that right now: The Invisible War.
Best Foreign Film: This is usually the category with the most surprising winners. Remember when The Lives of Others beat Pan’s Labrynth? Or when Departures beat Waltz with Bashir? But Amour has too much going for it. It will win.
Best Animated Feature: If Brave wins this one, I’ll eat my shorts. Wreck-It-Ralph all the way.
Best Film Editing: The front runner for Best Picture doesn’t necessarily have to take this award. (Last year, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?) This may be the one chance Zero Dark Thirty has at winning an Oscar.
Best Adapted Screenplay: I know Argo and Silver Linings Playbook have picked up a lot of steam with their WAG/BAFTAs lately…but I have to go with my gut. I still think Tony Kushner will get this one for Lincoln.
Best Original Screenplay: This is a very tricky category. Amour could win…it wouldn’t be the first time a foreign film has won this. But…it’s still pretty rare, despite all the nominations. Mark Boal won an Oscar for The Hurt Locker, and this year he finds himself, once again, competing against Quentin Tarrantino. I think this time, Tarrantino will win the battle for Django Unchained.
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables). She has literally won EVERYTHING.
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln). He has literally won EVERYTHING! However, if voters REALLY don’t want to give Lewis a THIRD Oscar for his 55th year of life, I can see Joaquin Phoenix as the next Adrien Brody.
Best Supporting Actor: This category is tricky because the precursors have been all over the place. Hoffman won the Critics Choice. Waltz won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG. And then there’s Robert Deniro, at one time an Oscar favorite who hasn’t won in 30 years for a movie that’s clearly popular with the Academy. The only win that would truly be shocking would be Alan Arkin. Anyway, I think Christoph Waltz will win for Django Unchained because he has a lot of screen time.(Hoffman does too, but The Master isn’t as popular).
Best Actress: I still think this is between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence…but Riva has been picking up A LOT of support. Riva winning would be a perfect Oscar story and you know she would get a pretty long standing ovation. But…when it comes to this category, the voters like someone young and hip and now. Chastain definitely fit those qualifications…but considering the Kathryn Bigelow snub and the voters overall ambivalence towards Zero Dark Thirty…I am going to stick with my girl Jennifer Lawrence.
Best Director: Because of Lincoln‘s overall fall from grace throughout this season (and Argo‘s shocking dominance), this category has become even more competitive. All five of these directors have a chance…even little Benh Zeitlin. Ang Lee is amazing and incredibly unassuming…but I just don’t think enough people are paying attention to him. So, I think Steven Spielberg will take this one for Lincoln.
Best Picture: Argo! (Thus becoming the first film since forever to win Best Picture without anything else.)
Well that’s it. Predictions for every category. The awards are this weekend. I may or may not have a quick write up after the winners are announced. Thanks for reading!