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2013 Oscar Talk (Predicting the Winners)


vlcsnap-2013-02-16-20h45m34s222 vlcsnap-2013-02-16-20h45m23s110 lincoln

So a few days ago I ranked all the nominees and gave my opinion as to who should win in each category. Well, now that all the ballots have been mailed in, it is now time to reveal my FINAL FINAL predictions. I’m not going to lie, some of the categories were difficult. I think I’m having trouble figuring out whether the Academy will fully embrace Argo…or throw us a curve ball and show their support for early front runner Lincoln. Throughout this award season, with every passing award show, Argo’s stock seems to get higher, while Lincoln loses more and more steam. But…Argo didn’t get a Director nomination. And, anyway, who’s going to win Director? Will it go to Spielberg or someone else? Well, anyway, no more questions. I just have to go for it. And…well…whatever happens happens.

For a full list of the nominations, click here.

Let’s start from the bottom and work our way to the top! No ranking. Just plain, simple, “bold” predictions.

Best Live Action Short Film: I don’t know anything about these short film categories. It seems like all these films have already won many other awards. But…I have to do this anyway. Buzkashi Boys.

Best Documentary Short: Inocente.

Best Animated Short: Paperman…although Adam and Dog also seems like a possibility because it’s weird and boring. (JK)

Best Visual Effects: Usually the film nominated for Best Picture gets this one, so I think it’ll go to Life of Pi. All three Lord of the Rings films won this award, so voters may want to continue the tradition and vote for The Hobbit…but I doubt it.

Best Sound Mixing: I think Les Miserables will take this one because I think having the singers sing live on film was very daring and effective and despite some wonky notes (Crowe, Jackman, maybe even Seyfried), I wouldn’t have changed that for the world. Maybe this is turning into a “wishful thinking” prediction. Although the last two big musical contenders (Chicago, Dreamgirls) won this award.

Best Sound Editing: I wanna say voters will be weird and choose Skyfall…but, nah, Life of Pi all the way.

Best Song: It’s going to be Skyfall. It has to be Skyfall! I will cry if it’s not Skyfall. I love when Adele makes award speeches!

Best Score: I think this is another “wishful thinking” prediction but…I think Mychael Danna of Life of Pi will repeat his Golden Globe victory here. Of course, 5 time Academy Award winner John Williams (Lincoln) also has a strong shot…especially if voters decide to really embrace Lincoln where so many other award shows haven’t.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables.

Best Costume Design: It’s the battle of the Snow Whites! And who will win?…Anna Karenina…

Can I make a note in saying that I LOVE the Costume Category because, more than any other category, the voters don’t care if the movie isn’t great. I mean – were Alice in Wonderland or Marie Antoinette great films? Eh…but the costumes are AMAZING!

Next…

Best Cinematography: Remember when Avatar beat The Hurt Locker? Yeah…another one for Life of Pi.

Best Production Design: I don’t like how they changed the name of this category. I liked “Art Direction” because of the emphasis on Art. Anyway…I just think Life of Pi will do well with these technical awards.

Best Documentary Feature: The beauty of Oscar predictions is taking risks. I’m going to do that right now: The Invisible War.

Best Foreign Film: This is usually the category with the most surprising winners. Remember when The Lives of Others beat Pan’s Labrynth? Or when Departures beat Waltz with Bashir? But Amour has too much going for it. It will win.

Best Animated Feature: If Brave wins this one, I’ll eat my shorts. Wreck-It-Ralph all the way.

Best Film Editing: The front runner for Best Picture doesn’t necessarily have to take this award. (Last year, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?) This may be the one chance Zero Dark Thirty has at winning an Oscar.

Best Adapted Screenplay: I know Argo and Silver Linings Playbook have picked up a lot of steam with their WAG/BAFTAs lately…but I have to go with my gut. I still think Tony Kushner will get this one for Lincoln.

Best Original Screenplay: This is a very tricky category. Amour could win…it wouldn’t be the first time a foreign film has won this. But…it’s still pretty rare, despite all the nominations. Mark Boal won an Oscar for The Hurt Locker, and this year he finds himself, once again, competing against Quentin Tarrantino. I think this time, Tarrantino will win the battle for Django Unchained.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables). She has literally won EVERYTHING.

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln). He has literally won EVERYTHING! However, if voters REALLY don’t want to give Lewis a THIRD Oscar for his 55th year of life, I can see Joaquin Phoenix as the next Adrien Brody.

Best Supporting Actor: This category is tricky because the precursors have been all over the place. Hoffman won the Critics Choice. Waltz won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG. And then there’s Robert Deniro, at one time an Oscar favorite who hasn’t won in 30 years for a movie that’s clearly popular with the Academy. The only win that would truly be shocking would be Alan Arkin. Anyway, I think Christoph Waltz will win for Django Unchained because he has a lot of screen time.(Hoffman does too, but The Master isn’t as popular).

Best Actress: I still think this is between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence…but Riva has been picking up A LOT of support. Riva winning would be a perfect Oscar story and you know she would get a pretty long standing ovation. But…when it comes to this category, the voters like someone young and hip and now. Chastain definitely fit those qualifications…but considering the Kathryn Bigelow snub and the voters overall ambivalence towards Zero Dark Thirty…I am going to stick with my girl Jennifer Lawrence. 

Best Director: Because of Lincoln‘s overall fall from grace throughout this season (and Argo‘s shocking dominance), this category has become even more competitive. All five of these directors have a chance…even little Benh Zeitlin. Ang Lee is amazing and incredibly unassuming…but I just don’t think enough people are paying attention to him. So, I think Steven Spielberg will take this one for Lincoln.

Best Picture: Argo! (Thus becoming the first film since forever to win Best Picture without anything else.)

Well that’s it. Predictions for every category. The awards are this weekend. I may or may not have a quick write up after the winners are announced. Thanks for reading!

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Favorite Moments of the Golden Globes (+an Update on the State of the Race)


Didn’t I tell you? Didn’t I tell you Argo would walk away the big winner? We have to remember, when predicting these awards, that the Hollywood Foreign Press are, well, FOREIGN. So sometimes their winners reflect that. No, there was no way Maggie Smith was going beat Jennifer Lawrence. But I think if the voters had the choice between the “semi-International” Argo and the equally great, but more patriotic Zero Dark Thirty, they would choose Argo. 

For a full list of winners, click here. 

What I wasn’t expecting was Ben Affleck to pick up his second trophy for Direction. And, to a larger extent, I wasn’t expecting Lincoln to be so shut out (The only award it won was the expected Lead Actor in a Drama Movie for Daniel Day Lewis). But, like I mentioned before, Lincoln may be “too American” for the Academy…even if half the actors in the movie arent’t American.

For the most part, I liked a lot of the films/actors who won. Jennifer Lawrence, Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain. Daniel Day Lewis, and Chrisophe Waltz, all deserved their wins. I feel more ambivalent towards Hugh Jackman and Les Miz beating Bradley Cooper and Silver Linings Playbook but the wins were far from shocking. I was very happy to see Quentin Tarrantino win for his screenplay among a sea of heavy competition. And I think it was cute that Mychael Danna won. I’ve always loved his work…particularly for The Sweet Hereafter and Road to Avonlea among many other things.

So what do these Golden Globes say about the competition for the more important award?:

  1. Daniel Day Lewis and Anne Hathaway are pretty much going to sweep their categories. Anne Hathaway may be on some thin ice because she totally “Kanye West-ed” the producer when he went up to the mic to accept the award for Best Motion Picture. But, I honestly think the only people who will make a really big deal out of that are people who irrationally hated her in the first place.
  2. Supporting Actor is still very much up in the air. Imagine if Leonardo Dicaprio had won. That would have made the race even more exciting. Right now, Waltz, Hoffman and, yes, Jones have a slight bump…but it’s still anyone’s game.
  3. Lead Actress is still “Lawrence vs. Chastain” because they both won their respective categories. And considering Riva wasn’t nominated for the Golden Globes and the SAGs, she is still a very possible dark horse for the Oscar, thanks to the many surprise nominations Amour received.
  4. Best Director is more competitive than ever. I actually hope Ben Affleck wins the DGA…then we’ll really be biting our nails by Oscar night.
  5. For the first time since Driving Miss Daisy, a film (cough cough Argo) could win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination may still win Best Picture. Think about it.

That’s all for now. When the guild awards announce their winners, we may get a better idea as where the buzz is heading.

The TV Awards were a lot less exciting. One, because the Emmys already happened. And two, because the wins were, for the most part, expected. If my #1 prediction didn’t win, you can bet your ass my #2 won. Homeland swept all their categories except Supporting Actor. I have to admit though: the Girls wins were pretty surprising…but not really at the same time. The Globes love new shows and young winners. They killed two birds with one stone.

Last, let’s discuss some moments I loved more than vanilla cream cheese and store brand Wheat Thins.

  • Tina and Amy were amazing hosts. Was there any doubt that they wouldn’t be? That opening was unbelievable…probably the most hilarious opening I have ever seen on an awards show. The jokes aimed at James Cameron and James Franco (theme?) had me go nuts. Their delivery was pitch perfect. I wish they appeared a bit more throught…but, really, that opening monologue was almost too much. Hopefully they’re invited next year. Maybe the Oscars in 2014?
  • Kristen Wiig and Will Ferrell presenting Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Movie probably got the biggest laugh out of me. It was essentially “Garth and Kat” + Ferrell, minus Fred Armisen. I just loved it and it sounded like the audience was feeling it also. They essentially did a bit where they pretended to watch all the movies so they would be prepared. They weren’t prepared…
  • Some of the acceptance speeches were really great. Jennifer Lawrence’s was refreshing and funny. Chastain’s was heartfelt and emotional. Anne Hathaway’s mini-tribute to Sally Field was very genuine. I actually like it when someone takes the time to write a speech and read it, so I appreciated Lena Dunham’s (even if I wasn’t too thrilled over her win). Adele’s win was nice. She’s always just…so COCKNEY when she wins an award. It’s hilarious.
  • Jodie Foster’s speech was also very nice. It was rambling. It was slightly confusing and jumbled. It was funny. It was cheeky. It was awkward. It was heartfelt. It was genuine. She came across as completely likeable and…I need to see more of her movies. I heart Flightplan is fun. I absolutely loved this moment.

I dreamed a dream doo doo doo doo

And then I went and had a sandwich.

Anyway, that’s all for now. I actually had a lot of fun watching this ceremony. And, I just gotta say that this is probably the most exciting Oscar season in a while. So…I can’t wait to discuss it more.

Also, yesterday was the blog’s two year anniversary. I decided not to do anything major. I just want to say thank you. Whether you’re a regular or you just happened to stumble upon this blog for the first time…thank you for reading. And here’s to another year!

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70th (2013) Golden Globes Predictions (Television Categories)


game change

Is anyone else completely psyched for this year’s Golden Globes. I don’t necessarily take the actual awards too seriously…but I love the ceremony atmosphere. It’s a lot less stuffy than some of the more “major” awards. It’s just cool seeing drunk celebrities so uninhibited. And as much as I liked Ricky Gervais and his painfully honest commentary, I am balls to the wall excited for Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. They are the two funniest women in Hollywood. They’re best friends. I am confident this will be a fun night. But before then, I just GOTTA predict which people will win (and should win). Right now, I’m just going to focus on television. I’ll predict the movie categories after the Oscar nominations are announced Thursday. I know it shouldn’t matter…but it does.

OK…let’s start this thang. The nominations are here.

DRAMA

Series: With Mad Men surprisingly out of the way, this category is down to two strong contenders. The Newsroom is the type of new show that the Globes would probably like to reward, but the negative reviews might turn the Press away. Breaking Bad is a show that was never popular with this awards group. It’s weird how this was the show’s first nomination. And, let’s face it, no one really talks about Boardwalk Empire anymore. So, it’s last year’s winner Homeland vs. last year’s winner Downton Abbey. According to many fans and critics alike, both shows have gone through “sophomore slumps” in their second seasons. Nonetheless, they’re both front runners, and I think these mostly foreign voters will want to vote for the sophisticated British drama: Downton Abbey.

(However, I believe Breaking Bad should win to make up for all those times it was snubbed an nomination (Also, my opinion on the second season of Homeland might have changed a bit since my “Top 10 TV Shows” article from a few days back.))

Actor: Again, if The Newsroom had gotten better reviews, I’d feel tempted to predict Jeff Daniels. But, I think this time, the voters won’t vote for the “new nominee.” Clearly the HFPA doesn’t love Mad Men anymore so I don’t see Jon Hamm prevailing. And, again, no one really talks about Boardwalk Empire. So, similar to the Emmys, it’s Cranston vs. Lewis. The HFPA have had so many chances to give Bryan Cranston the award. I don’t think it’s going to happen this year. I think recent Emmy winner Damien Lewis will win.

(And, I think Damien Lewis should win. He was really great this year. Bryan Cranston winning would be fine, if only to make up for the past years snubs.)

Actress: Like I’ve mentioned before, the Golden Globes really love awarding the new underdog, with or without Emmys. That’s why the likes of Anna Paquin and Katey Sagal have won the years before. So, yeah, Connie Britton and Michelle Dockery have a chance. However, the HFPA’s love for Claire Danes is undeniable (she has never lost a Golden Globe before). So, I think she’ll just win this one again.

(Claire Danes is a worthy winner, but, for the sake of spreading the wealth, I’d like to see Michelle Dockery nab the prize this time. Julianna Margulies has also had a great year. I love Connie Britton, but her story line in Nashville is the most boring.)

COMEDY

Series: This is a toughie for me. I think it’s safe to say Big Bang Theory and Smash are out. The Golden Globes clearly like Episodes - Matt LeBlanc won last year. Modern Family seems to win everything nowadays. And Girls is a new, critically acclaimed show – the type of show that voters would like. Hm…I think MF has run its course. Episodes will win. (So, if things go according to plan, British shows will win for Drama and Comedy.)

(I’m hoping Episodes win. It’s the only show in this lineup that I would have personally nominated.)

Actor: Alec Baldwin could get a “goodbye” win…but I think the voters’ ambivalence towards the show as a whole is holding Baldwin back. This is Louis CK’s first nomination…I think the nomination is the award for him. In short, I think this will be a good night for Matt LeBlanc and he’ll win again. He should watch for Don Cheadle though.

(Honestly…anyone but Jim Parsons. I’m rooting for Louis CK’s the most.)

Actress: It’s the dueling hosts – Amy vs. Tina! Just kidding. It’s really Lena Dunham vs. Julia Louis Dreyfus. The Golden Globes like cable comedies. They like young women. I think first timer Lena Dunham will prevail and win her first major award.

(Hm…I think Tina Fey is the best of these ladies. But, at the same time, seeing Amy Poehler finally win an award would be beautiful.)

TV MOVIE/MINISERIES

TV Movie/Miniseries: The Golden Globes usually just copy off the Emmys…even if there are new contenders. Game Change‘s only real competition is Hatfields and McCoys.

(Having not seen The Girl, Political Animals or the second season of The Hour, I have no choice but to root for Game Change.)

Actor: This category is pretty much out in the air. Benedict Cumberbatch of Sherlock is a strong contender, but I’m going to predict Kevin Costner this time for Hatfields and McCoys. 

(I think Cumberbatch should win. I really like Woody Harrelson though. It’s sad that he doesn’t get much credit for Game Change.

Actress: Jessica Lange won a Golden Globe last year for American Horror Story. She could very well win again for this second season. However, like I mentioned before, the Golden Globes usually just award the person who won the Emmy. So I think Julianne Moore will win for her wonderful Sarah Palin performance in Game Change.

(Yeah, Julianne Moore FTW.)

SUPPORTING PERFORMERS

Actor: The supporting categories are always a crapshoot. Besides Danny Huston for Magic City, any of these men have a chance. Eric Stonestreet won the Emmy last fall, while Max Greenfield and Ed Harris were nominated. However, Mandy Patinkin had a stand out role in this season’s Homeland. If the voters love Homeland, they watched this season. And if they were as impressed with his performance as everyone else was, then I think they’ll award him along with his two co-stars. It’s anyone’s game though.

(I think Mandy Patinkin is the most deserving (If Aaron Paul had been nominated, then we’d be having a different discussion.). If Eric Stonestreet wins, I’ll lose it.)

Actress: Without Jessica Lange in her way, this is Maggie Smith‘s to lose.

(Honestly, this is the one category where I really like all the nominees. However…a little part of me is rooting for Hayden Panettiere of Nashville. Yeah, is she really supporting? Who knows? She’s still really good and has sort of become a breakout this season. I hope she’s nominated for an Emmy)

So…that’s it. Stay tuned for my movie predictions which I’ll either have posted on the night of the 10th…or early 11th. Thanks for reading!

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Final 2013 Oscar Nominations Predictions!


lincoln

OK…I have to do this. I’ve been trying to avoid this but…I got no choice. It’s time to predict what films and people will get that special nomination for the 85th Academy Awards. I will predicting EVERY category (except the shorts), whether I’ve personally seen the films or not. And, if I feel necessary, I will explain my choices. OK…let’s do this! I’m pumped!

Also, I unfortunately have to post these before the BAFTA nominations are announced because I want the chance for more people to read this. However, if I decide to make a last minute change (WHICH I AM WITHIN MY RIGHT TO DO), then I will edit this page and make it it clear in the title that the predictions are updated. (I doubt that I will do that…the BAFTAs usually nominate what they think the Oscars will nominate…and anything out of the ordinary won’t matter.)

The same for the Director’s Guild nominations that come out in the 8th.

Best Picture:

1. Lincoln

2. Zero Dark Thirty

3. Argo

4. Les Miserables

5. Silver Linings Playbook

6. Django Unchained

7. Life of Pi

8. Moonrise Kingdom

9. Beasts of Southern Wild

10. Skyfall

I’m pretty much going to agree with the Producers Guild on this one. The first 7 are guaranteed to get in. However, Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts could easily be replaced by the likes of Marigold Hotel, The Master, Amour, The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, or even Looper. Skyfall has been gaining a lot of buzz recently and considering it’s Bond’s 50th Anniversary, the Academy may want to honor the film series by giving a Bond film (a billion dollar box office well received Bond film) its first Best Picture nomination.

ARGO

Best Director:

1. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

2. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

3.  Ben Affleck (Argo)

4. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

5. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

Can we say most competitive lineup ever?? Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) and David O Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) can replace any of the bottom three. I was actually tempted to put Russell in my predictions, but the Academy doesn’t usually go gaga over comedy movies. 

wes anderson

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)

2. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

3. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom)

4. Flight (John Gatins)

5. The Master (Paul Thomas Anderson)

This category is so “up in the air.” Looper, Amour, or even the little seen Middle of Nowhere could break through. If This is 40 had been better, it probably would have become a strong contender also. Instead Ted is our best hope of having a broad comedy nominated.

silver linings

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Tony Kushner (Lincoln)

2. Chris Terrio (Argo)

3. David O Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

4. The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)

5. Life of Pi (David Magee)

Predicting Perks over Beasts of Southern Wild or Les Miz is a bit of a risk…but I have to go with my heart. I believe the Academy will appreciate the small, underrated gem.

the sessions

Best Actor:

1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

2. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

3. Denzel Washington (Flight)

4. John Hawkes (The Sessions)

5. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Bradley Cooper is on thin ice. He could be replaced with Joaquin Phoenix (The Master). So we essentially have six “worthy” actors fighting for five spots.

jessica chastain

Best Actress:

1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

3. Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)

4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

5. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of Southern Wild)

This one is tough for me. I’m 99% sure that the top 4 are going to make it no problem. However both Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva (despite her recent critics award) have been losing a lot of buzz since the fall. (Both of them losing SAG and Golden Globe nominations to Helen Mirren). In Wallis’s defense, she wasn’t eligible for the SAG award anyway. But the point is, those losses were tough and they aren’t the front runners we all thought they were.  I’m going with Wallis because I think Wallis gives a beautiful, powerful subtle performance the same way Keisha Castle Hughes did a few years back. I don’t think the Academy will resist giving this little girl a nom (think Abigail Breslin). However, I won’t be surprised if she’s snubbed in favor of Riva, Mirren, or Rachel Weisz. Even Cotillard and Watts are a little vulnerable. Lawrence and Chastain are the only two bonafide locks.

leo django unchained

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

2. Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

3. Javier Bardem (Skyfall)

4. Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

Man…it was painful leaving Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) and Alan Arkin (Argo) out. I’m ready to eat crow. I just…think that Django Unchained will be well recognized this Oscars…and that includes getting two slots in Supporting Actor. (I was actually tempted to put Samuel L. Jackson in there considering he really is the best thing about the film).  But I recognize those two could be swapped for Hoffman, Eddie Redmayne (Les Miz) or even Matthew McConaughey who’s weirdly gotten acclaim for his “not bad” performance in the “not bad” Magic Mike.

anne hathaway les miz

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

2. Sally Field (Lincoln)

3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

4. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)

5. Ann Dowd (Compliance)

In my defense, I have not watched The Master…which is why I’m being so stingy with its chances. Like Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor and Direction, Amy Adams could very well get in. Actually, I feel weird predicting Dowd and Kidman over the likes of Maggie Smith and Amy Adams. But…sometimes…ya just have to take the risk. But, seriously? Kidman was nominated for the Golden Globe and the SAG. The team behind Paperboy has pretty much admitted that, besides Kidman, the movie sucks. So they’re only campaigning for Kidman. And Ann Dowd got a lot of press when it was revealed that she took out a loan so she could send out screeners of the movie herself (because the studio wouldn’t shell out the bucks).

Best Animated Feature:

1. Wreck-It-Ralph

2. Frankenweenie

3. ParaNorman

4. Brave

5. The Painting

I’m picking The Painting over Rise of the Guardians because the Academy always votes for some Artsy Fartsy foreign film in this category.

Best Foreign Language Film:

1. Amour (Austria)

2. The Intouchables (France)

3. A Royal Affair (Denmark)

4. No (Chile)

5. Kon-Tiki (Norway)

I was tempted to predict War Witch because it’s Canadian but…nope.

Best Documentary Feature:

1. Bully

2. Searching for Sugar Man

3. How to Survive the Plague

4. The Gatekeepers

5. The House I Live In

Best Production Design:

1. Lincoln

2. Les Miserables

3. Life of Pi

4. Anna Karenina

5. The Hobbit

Best Cinematography:

1. Zero Dark Thirty

2. Lincoln

3. Skyfall

4. Life of Pi

5. Les Miserables

Apparently, The Master is also a strong contender.

Best Costume Design:

1. Anna Karenina

2. Lincoln

3. Les Miserables

4. The Hobbit

5. Moonrise Kingdom

BTW, Cloud Atlas is also a strong contender for many of these technical awards.

Best Editing:

1. Zero Dark Thirty

2. Lincoln

3. Argo

4. Les Miserables

5. Silver Linings Playbook

This is a very important category. Apparently, a film can’t win Best Picture without at least a Best Editing nomination. So…yeah, I think Silver Linings Playbook is in because I think it still has a chance to win, thus Life of Pi and Django Unchained are out.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

1. The Hobbit

2. Lincoln

3. Les Miserables

The other four films to make the shortlist are Men in Black 3, Hitchcock, Looper, and Snow White and The Huntsman.

Best Score:

1. Lincoln

2. Beasts of Southern Wild

3. Anna Karenina

4. Life of Pi

5. Argo

And number 6 would be…The Master!

Best Song:

1. “Skyfall” (Skyfall)

2. “Suddenly” (Les Miserables)

3. “Learn Me Right” (Brave)

4. “Still Alive” (Paul Williams)

5. Something from Django Unchained…

I was ready to predict “Safe and Sound” for the top spot…but then I found out it wasn’t eligible. I love Adele…but I really don’t care about this category anymore. (I wanted an Adele vs. Taylor showdown!!!)

Best Sound Editing and Mixing:

1. Zero Dark Thirty

2. The Avengers

3. The Dark Knight

4. Life of Pi

5. Les Miserables

With Skyfall or The Impossible being spoilers. Yeah…I’m lazy. I’m just going to say that both categories will be the same. (They never are!)

Best Visual Effects:

1. Life of Pi

2. The Hobbit

3. The Avengers

4. The Dark Knight Rises

5. Cloud Atlas

Again, Skyfall is a strong contender.

Yeah…I’m not doing the Shorts.

Anyway, those are my predictions. I’m 99% sure these predictions are final…but if something big comes up between now and the 9th, I have the right to change. OK…BYE!

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01/07
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2012 Final Emmy Predictions (Supporting Performers)


So let’s countdown where we are. All the members of the Academy have read the ballots, cast their votes and sent them to be counted. That means, no matter what happens between now and July 19th, when the nominations are announced, the potential nominees won’t be affected. So, I guess there’s no reason to wait any longer. Here are my final predictions to who’s going to get nominated…

To read the ballots to know exactly which actors submitted where, click here.

For more Emmy discussion, visit my Emmy page.

I’ve looked into my heart and soul…and I’ve decided on my final predictions for the supporting performers on all categories. This was tough for me. These categories can be very tough to predict…because there are so many contenders, new and old. But…because I’m being paid zero dollars and zero cents, I must. It is my duty. The world needs more Award predictors and fewer doctors and teachers.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

1. Ty Burrell (Modern Family)

2. Eric Stonestreet (Modern Family)

3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson (Modern Family)

4. Ed O’Neill (Modern Family)

5. Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation)

6. Max Greenfield (New Girl)

I think all four Modern Family guys are back. For a while I thought Neil Patrick Harris and Chris Colfer would take those last two spots…but I’m taking a risk and predicting these newcomers. Nick Offerman is announcing the nominees so that should give him an edge…finally!

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

1. Julie Bowen (Modern Family)

2. Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)

3. Kristen Wiig (Saturday Night Live)

4. Betty White (Hot in Cleveland)

5. Jane Krakowski (30 Rock)

6. Kathryn Joosten (Desperate Housewives)

This time, I think voters will get sentimental and vote for Kathryn Joosten. However, both she and Jane K are still very vulnerable. Wiig, I believe, is absolutely safe at this point. 

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

1. Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)

2. Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)

3. John Slattery (Mad Men)

4. Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad)

5. Jared Harris (Mad Men)

6. Michael Pitt (Boardwalk Empire)

Mandy Patinkin will probably get in but…these are MY predictions so I say…he will be edged out in favor of actors whose characters died this year. I’m willing to eat crow if Patinkin is nominated. Never tried it. I think it might taste good. Could I deep fry it?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

1. Christine Hendricks (Mad Men)

2. Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

3. Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife)

4. Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)

5. Kelly Macdonald (Boardwalk Empire)

6. Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)

I predict this will be a big year for Breaking Bad, thus I believe Anna Gunn will finally break through. 

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MOVIE/MINISERIES:

1. Ed Harris (Game Change)

2. David Straithairn (Hemingway and Gelhorn)

3. Michael Gambon (Page Eight)

4. Powers Boothe (Hatfields and McCoys)

5. Denis O’Hare (American Horror Story)

Imma let you guys enjoy your “top contender” status, but EVAN PETERS WAS THE BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR OF ALL TIME!

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MOVIE/MINISERIES:

1. Jessica Lange (American Horror Story)

2. Sarah Paulson (Game Change)

3. Judy Davis (Page Eight)

4. Mare Winingham (Hatfields and McCoys)

5. Frances Conroy (American Horror Story

6. Gillian Anderson (Great Expectations)

Thanks for reading!

2012
07/09
CATEGORY
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2012 Final Emmy Predictions – Nominations (Programs)


So let’s countdown where we are. All the members of the Academy have read the ballots, cast their votes and sent them to be counted. That means, no matter what happens between now and July 19th, when the nominations are announced, the potential nominees won’t be affected. So, I guess there’s no reason to wait any longer. Here are my final predictions to who’s going to get nominated…

To read the ballots to know exactly which series submitted where, click here.

For more Emmy discussion, visit my Emmy page.

Now I am moving onto the program categories. Again, I think these categories are easier to predict than the supporting performers categories. So I’m just going to get these over with. Here we go! From most likely to least likely.

COMEDY SERIES:

1. Modern Family

2. Parks and Recreation

3. The Big Bang Theory

4. Curb Your Enthusiasm

5. 30 Rock

6. Louie

I actually was predicting Veep for a while…and then I remembered that CYE existed, so I had no choice but to bump that show down. Louie has so much going for it – it would be a shock and a shame if it was snubbed.

DRAMA SERIES:

1. Mad Men

2. Breaking Bad

3. Homeland

4. Game of Thrones

5. Boardwalk Empire

6. Downton Abbey

The Good Wife could replace number 5 or 6 but…yeah, these will be the nominees. 

TV MOVIE/MINISERIES:

1. Game Change

2. Hemingway and Gellhorn

3. Hatfields and McCoys

4. The Hour

5. American Horror Story

6. Sherlock

I’ve only seen two of TV programs. Can you guess which two? Is anyone surprised that Julian Fellowes’s  Titanic didn’t become the hit we all thought it would be? 

VARIETY SERIES:

1. The Daily Show

2. Saturday Night Live

3. Colbert Report

4. Late Night with Jimmy Fallon

5. Real Time with Bill Maher

6. Jimmy Kimmel Live

So according to me, Conan and Letterman will be snubbed in favor of…Jimmy Kimmel?? I think this might be wishful thinking. Kimmel would be so much more deserving than those two. I will forever be on Team Coco…but his new show on TBS is just not that good compared to others, primarily the top 4 + Chelsea Lately. Even Bill Maher isn’t continuously awkward like Conan is. Anyway, if they vote for Conan then I’m the idiot. Blurgh…

CHILDREN’S PROGRAM:

1. I Can Be President: A Kid’s-Eye View

2. iCarly

3. Wizards of Waverly Place

4. Good Luck Charlie

5. Victorious

I haven’t seen #1, but judging from the description they give on the ballot, (“What do our future leaders think? In their own words and vividly rendered in animated scenes, kids share ideas about the presidency in this enlightening program.” Barf) the judges will eat that up. Other than that, I think iCarly and Wizards will definitely stick around with the older-skewing Good Luck Charlie breaking through and taking Degrassi’s spot.

NONFICTION SERIES:

1. American Masters

2. Biography

3. Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations

4. American Experience

5. Inside the Actors Studio

6. Oprah’s Next Chapter

Maybe Oprah’s recent interview with Whitney Houston’s family members could give her a boost. Who knows? I don’t. I know virtually nothing about any of these shows or this category.

REALITY PROGRAM:

1. Deadliest Catch

2. Antiques Roadshow

3. MythBusters

4. Hoarders

5. Undercover Boss

6. Jamie Oliver’s Food Revolution

Besides Kathy Griffin, all of last year’s nominees are expected to return. Jamie Oliver won the year before but was snubbed a nomination last year last year. It would be so very cool if Dance Moms snuck in there, but the snobby Academy probably wouldn’t even consider it…

REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM:

1. The Amazing Race

2. Top Chef

3. Project Runway

4. American Idol

5. So You Think You Can Dance

6. The Voice

You know, I’m going to listen to the “experts” on this one. The Voice has become a big hit. Dancing with the Stars is becoming stale. I think The Voice will replace DWTS. Really though, besides the first 2 choices, all these programs are in one way or another vulnerable.

ANIMATED PROGRAM:

1. The Simpsons

2. South Park

3. Futurama

4. Archer

5. The Looney Tunes Show

Honestly, the last two choices are shots in the dark. Archer gets really really good reviews. And the Looney Tunes Show got a nomination last year for voice over performance so it’s definitely on the Emmy radar. American Dad and The Cleveland Show could, however, also snag those two spots. The first 3 are virtual locks.

SHORT-FORMAT ANIMATED PROGRAM:

1. Robot Chicken

2. Disney’s Phineas and Ferb

3. Disney’s Prep and Landing

4. MAD

5. 30 Rock Presents: The Donaghy Files

Shrug!

SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM:

1. 84th Annual Academy Awards

2. 65th Annual Tony Awards

3. 54th Annual Grammy Awards

I really do believe there will only be three nominees. I’m not just being lazy and/or fearful. Also, I also believe the Emmy ceremonies themselves should be eligible for these awards, because they’d actually be deserving.

SPECIAL CLASS LIVE ACTION SHORT FORMAT:

1. The Daily Show Correspondents Explain

2. 30 Rock: Webisodes

3. Web Therapy

4. Children”s Hospital

5. Key & Peele: Obama’s Anger Translator

Actually, this may just be a list of the programs I think should be nominated. The first 2 will most certainly come back again this year. The next three…I dunno.

Happy 4th of July! Thanks for reading! I won’t be posting my predictions for the supporting categories until next week because those categories are very competitive and I need a few more days to think it over. See ya!

2012
07/04
CATEGORY
30 rock
academy awards
american idol
awards
breaking bad
children's tv
drama
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3 comments

2012 Final Emmy Predictions – Nominations (Leading Performers)


So let’s countdown where we are. All the members of the Academy have read the ballots, cast their votes and sent them to be counted. That means, no matter what happens between now and July 19th, when the nominations are announced, the potential nominees won’t be affected. So, I guess there’s no reason to wait any longer. Here are my final predictions to who’s going to get nominated…

To read the ballots to know exactly which actors submitted where, click here.

For more Emmy discussion, visit my Emmy page.

Here are my predictions for the leading performers in comedy, drama, and tv movie/miniseries. Why am I predicting them first? Because, frankly, predicting the lead performers is probably simpler than predicting the incredibly crowded supporting ones. I will be ranking them from most likely to least likely. No alternates. No maybes. These are my predix and I’m sticking to it!

LEADING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES:

1. Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

2. Alec Baldwin (30 Rock)

3. Louis CK (Louie)

4. Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm)

5. Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men)

6. Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory)

Is it weird that I’m not predicting Don Cheadle? I’m just not feeling it. The Big Bang Theory is just too popular.

LEADING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES:

1. Amy Poehler (Parks and Recreation)

2. Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

3. Tina Fey (30 Rock)

4. Lena Dunham (Girls)

5. Laura Dern (Enlightened)

6. Zooey Deschanel (New Girl)

So that means last year’s winner McCarthy, and last years’ nominees Plimpton, Falco and Linney will not make it this year according to my gut. Risky!

LEADING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES:

1. Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)

2. Jon Hamm (Mad Men)

3. Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire)

4. Damian Lewis (Homeland)

5. Kelsey Grammer (Boss)

6. Hugh Laurie (House)

If this wasn’t House’s last season, I wouldn’t be predicting Hugh Laurie.

LEADING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES:

1. Claire Danes (Homeland)

2. Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)

3. Elizabeth Moss (Mad Men)

4. Mariska Hargitay (Law & Order: SVU)

5. Glenn Close (The Closer)

6. Elizabeth McGovern (Downton Abbey)

Yes. I am that confident that Hargitay will get nominated again. In terms of Emmys, she is as much of a powerhouse, if not more, than Kathy Bates.

LEADING ACTOR IN A TV MOVIE/MINISERIES:

1. Clive Owen (Hemingway and Gelhorn)

2. Woody Harrelson (Game Change)

3. Idris Elba (Luther)

4. Bill Nighy (Page Eight)

5. Dominic West (The Hour)

6. Dylan McDermott from American Horror Story.

LEADING ACTRESS IN A TV MOVIE/MINISERIES:

1. Julianne Moore (Game Change)

2. Nicole Kidman (Hemingway and Gelhorn)

3. Emily Watson (Appropriate Adult)

4. Connie Britton (American Horror Story)

5. Rachel Weisz (Page Eight)

6. Romola Garai from The Hour.

2012
07/01
CATEGORY
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drama
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1 comment

2012 Emmys Pre-Nominations Top Contenders (Drama Series)


Interestingly enough, there was a time when, before the actual nominations came out, voters would narrow down all the contenders to the “top 10″. They obviously don’t do that anymore. But…we can still assume which contenders are at the top of the voter’s minds. Before I release my official nomination predictions around early July, I am going to run down which 10 or so contenders are the biggest threats…and maybe some personal long shots that I believe voters should consider. Here we go!

I am basing the category placements, based on the official ballots which were just released. Here they are.

For more Emmy discussion, visit my Emmy page.

In alphabetical order, here are the top contenders for Best Drama Series.

1. BOARDWALK EMPIRE - Pros: This show received plenty of buzz even before its first season, and after the season aired, it certainly didn’t disappoint in terms of critics’ expectations or awards. The show and its star, Steve Buscemi, have won both Golden Globes and Guild Awards. In terms of Emmys, it won 8 Emmys last year, including a Direction win for its pilot. And, of course, it was nominated for Drama Series. With its second season winning the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild, with other major nominations under its belt, a snub for a second Emmy nomination would be a pretty big shock. Cons: A small, yet passionate group of people really really dislike this show. They call it overrated. Their vocal-ness could could affect votes. The show was also snubbed at the TCAs and the Critics Choice Awards. With Breaking Bad coming back to the mix, and Homeland breaking in…Boardwalk Empire doesn’t seem as hot as it used to be.

2. BREAKING BAD - Pros: The 9.3 rating the show has on IMDB should be enough, but I’ll go farther since I’m being paid the big bucks (roughly 0 dollars and 0 cents). The show wasn’t eligible last year, but the the 2 years before then it received 2 Drama series nominations among other things. Aaron Paul won an Emmy. And Bryan Cranston has won the Emmy 3 straight years in a row, 1 for every season. The show has been nominated for other awards, and it even received its first SAG nomination for the ensemble this year. The show also received a bunch of nominations for the various critics awards, and has generally made the top of critics top 10 lists. Outside its awards count, the show has a received a lot of buzz and positive feedback and word of mouth. Virtually every episode of this season has received buzz through Twitter and Feedback. Truly, the writers have done a great task, creating one of the most riveting seasons of television. On a personal level, as someone who has loved this show since its first season, I am so glad the show is receiving the applause its always deserved. And a win would be perfect. Cons: Voters who don’t really watch the shows and simply vote based on buzz may forget to put this show on its ballot because it wasn’t eligible last year…Honestly, there’s nothing.

3. DAMAGES - Pros: Admittedly, I have not watched an episode of this series, so I can’t speak on quality. But, objectively, the show has a lot going for it. Besides Glenn Close, the show has never done terribly well with awards outside of Emmys. But…it has still done well during their first three seasons. Their first two seasons got nominations for Drama Series (with Glenn Close winning of course). It didn’t receiving a Series nomination during their last year (2010), but it still received enough major nominations to still be considered an Emmy favorite. In short, this show is still in the minds of Emmy voters and it, at least, deserves to be considered a top contender. Cons: After a year of ineligibility, the show is back in the race. While Glenn Close, maybe Rose Byrne, and any supporting actor is expected to get nominated, the Show itself is receiving very little buzz. It’s simply not a show that most people talk about. With so many new shows from the last year and this year coming into the race, it’s going to be very tough for this show to breakthrough.

4. DEXTER - Pros: The show has gotten the nomination for the last 4 years, winning in 2010 for Direction. The show has also received many other award nominations, including the SAGs, PGAs, DGAs, and WGAs just recently. It’s an award favorite and a critics favorite and a lot fans still watch/love the show. Cons: I didn’t watch this season so everything I’m writing will be pure speculation. Has this show really received that much buzz? Would people really be that shocked if the show was snubbed? And aren’t fans saying that this last season wasn’t so great? The show has a lot going for it…but, again, similar to with Damages, it’ll be very hard for voters to resist voting for the newer, fresher, more critically acclaimed shows on the ballot.

5. DOWNTON ABBEY - Pros: Y’know, after finishing this second season (and re-watching the first season), I’ve come to really appreciate this show, and I have become a fan. Do I still believe it wrongfully stole awards from Mildred Pierce last year? YAH! But do I now understand why so many people love this show? I do. And people really do like this show. Like stated earlier, it did win the Emmy for Movie/Miniseries last year, and this year, it’s gotten various award nominations in the regular Series category, including for the two critics awards. And this wouldn’t be the first “British upstairs/downstairs” series to do well at the Emmys. During the 70′s, Upstairs/Downstairs did very well, winning  during one of the years. It’s very possible that this international success will follow that older series’ footsteps. Cons: The show isn’t as hard hitting and intense as some other shows. It’s very light and airy. And, it being a period show, voters may not fully relate to what’s going on. Besides that, just because the show did well last year in Movie/Miniseries, doesn’t mean the second season will do as well in more competitive categories.

6. GAME OF THRONES - Pros: Ugh, can I just interject and say the Drama category is filled with more critically acclaimed shows than the Comedy Category. Just sayin’. Anyway, this show is not my style, but it is definitely the style of people, critics, award groups and, most importantly, Emmy voters, who gave the show a million nominations last year (including for Drama Series), winning two, most notably for the show’s MVP Peter Dinklage. Judging from skimming the grades AV Club has given the show, the magic that the show had during its first season seems to still be there. Cons: The show had a little controversy because uh, apparently, they chopped off George W. Bush’s head in one episode (I know, wtf). That could affect the 2 or 3 stubborn conservatives in the industry. Also, it’s just worth pointing out, that voters have always tended to enjoy realistic drama, over genre, fantasy television. It seems like GoT has broken that tradition though.

7. THE GOOD WIFE - Pros: The pro is that this show is amazing and that the voters would have to be blind, deaf and dumb to not vote for this show. OK, seriously, in an age where cable dramas are prevailing at the Emmys, this show stacks up quite well, receiving two Drama Series noms in a row, and a win last year for its star Julianna Margulies, plus five other acting nominations. The show does very well with nominations for other award groups. And, if the voters needed to award one and only one network show, The Good Wife would probably be the most appropriate choice. Cons: Although they still believe the show is great, most fans agree that season 3 wasn’t as great as season 2, with the show slowly becoming more of a standard anthology crime procedural than serial drama. Besides that, the show has always been 5th or 6th, which means it will probably be knocked off in favor of a newer drama.

8. HOMELAND - Pros: Even before the Emmys, the new show has already received many honors from the Critics Choice Awards, the Writers Guild Awards and the Edgar Allen Poe Awards, winning the Drama Series award at the Golden Globes.The show, and particularly Claire Danes,  have also nabbed enthusiastic reviews from many critics and fans. And has received so much buzz that the bee would have to be the size of a cruise ship. It’s one of those “new shows” that’s expected to take the spot from one of the older shows. It might be the only new show to be honest. Cons: The biggest con is the fact that the show didn’t receive any Screen Actors Guild Awards, which was pretty much one of the biggest award snubs in recent memory. So…do” other actors not like this show? Considering that’s a very large group of Emmy voters, the producers of Homeland should be a little worried. With some effective campaigning the show should still do well.

9. JUSTIFIED - Pros: This could be the year Justified breaks through.  I mean, it has everything going for it, fans, good ratings, enthusiastic critical reviews, and an Emmy for Margo Martindale last year, along with the three other acting nominations. Sometimes it takes a couple seasons for a show to break through. If Justified followed that same route, a lot of people would be very happy. Cons: The show is similar to The Wire, people love it, Award voters do not. After two pretty lame years in terms of nominations, maybe we just have to accept that Emmy voters do not care for this /watch this show.

10. MAD MEN - Pros: This is pretty much the “Modern Family” of the drama category, in that it gets at least nominated for every award possible. It gets plenty of critical acclaim, and, you have to admit, I can’t be the only one who has Facebook walls filled with “OMG! I love Mad Men!” And this season was really good. In my opinion, this show has never been number 1 on my list, but it gets better and better with every season, so, in that case, it should be a lock for another Drama Series win (its 5th…for its 5th season). The show isn’t going anyway. End of point. Cons: Ugh. I still have to do this? Hm…what’s working against this show? Nothing. Nothing. It’s a lock.

11. SMASH - Pros: Haha! I know! I know! This is silly. But we have to consider this. We have to consider this show. Like…voters love Glee (which we know they did), then maybe they love this dramatic equivalent (in terms of the “musical idea,” not in terms of “quality”). I also believe that this will pick up a few technical nominations, so if that happens, I don’t see why Smash can’t be considered a threat. And, we have to remember the golden rule…critics are not voters. So even though critics had very lukewarm feelings about this show, voters may actually quite like it. It’s a fun show that features a lot of musical performances and celebrates New York theatre. If voters want to honor that, they may end up voting for this show. Cons: The show has a been a disappointment all around: with critics, with ratings, and even regular viewers. Although the show had a little buzz after the pilot premiered, the buzz got quieter and quieter as the season progressed. Jaws will drop if Smash ends up getting that nomination.

12. THE WALKING DEAD - Pros: During the show’s first season, it did decent in terms of nominations, most notably getting WGA, DGA, and a Golden Globe nomination for the series. It didn’t get any major Emmy nominations, but it still won an award for make up which, at least, shows that it’s getting some attention. It’s a popular, fun show, and it could very well get an unexpected nom the same way True Blood did a few years back. Cons: It probably won’t, despite the fact that most people thought the second season improved from the first.

FYI Other contenders include: The Borgias, Boss, House, Luck, True Blood

Longshots Worth Mentioning: The Closer, Fringe, The Killing, Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Suits, Touch, The Vampire Diaries

They have no chance in hell but I still love ‘em: The Client List, Grey’s Anatomy, Harry’s Law, Shameless

That is all for this series. In a couple weeks, you should be expecting my official predictions for the Emmy nominations. But, until then, please continue to check back because there may be more posts from me (Emmy related or non- Emmy related.)

Thank you so much for coming here and reading. I’ve actually gotten a pretty good uptick in views since I started these articles. So thank you and I can’t wait to talk Emmys with you guys for these next few months!

2012
06/20
CATEGORY
awards
breaking bad
drama
emmy awards
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mildred pierce
musical
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reflection
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2 comments

2012 Emmys Pre-Nominations Top Contenders (Comedy Series)


Interestingly enough, there was a time when, before the actual nominations came out, voters would narrow down all the contenders to the “top 10″. They obviously don’t do that anymore. But…we can still assume which contenders are at the top of the voter’s minds. Before I release my official nomination predictions around early July, I am going to run down which 10 or so contenders are the biggest threats…and maybe some personal long shots that I believe voters should consider. Here we go!

I am basing the category placements, based on the official ballots which were just released. Here they are.

For more Emmy discussion, visit my Emmy page.

In alphabetical order, here are the top contenders for Best Comedy Series.

1. THE BIG BANG THEORY - Pros: The show received its first Best Comedy Series nomination last year. Along with that, they were just nominated for SAG Awards for the ensemble and the Producers Guild Award. It’s also just been nominated for a Television Critics Award and a Critics Choice Award. And, of course, the show’s MVP Jim Parsons has won two consecutive Emmys among many other things. The show is very very hot and more popular than ever are watching it! And, this season, it even surpassed American Idol in the ratings for a few weeks. If the voters are going to nominate one multi-camera sitcom (and they always do), this show has the best chance at getting that nomination. Cons: The humor tends to be a bit “low brow,” which won’t please the snobby members of the Academy. Um…that’s it.

2. COMMUNITY - Pros: The show won an Emmy last year (it was a special, individual Emmy for their Animated Christmas special but…it’s still technically one more than 30 Rock.) The show was also just nominated for a Hugo Award for arguably the strongest comedy episode of the season “Remedial Chaos Theory”. They’ve also gotten nominations for both the major Critics awards (mentioned above). This show is a huge critics favorite. And the small fanbase is passionate and aggressive over their love (even if that means bashing other people who don’t care for the show cough cough). The show received a lot of buzz and exposure after NBC left the show off the schedule in January. It might be hard for Emmy voters to ignore this show. Cons: The show has been overwhelmingly snubbed for the last two years. It’s not like this show just became funny. It’s always been funny…yet the voters still snub the show. Even some fans have said that this season hasn’t been as consistent as the past seasons. The show also hasn’t been nominated for Golden Globes, or any other Guild Awards. And the show’s ratings have been especially low this season, save for two comparatively strong weeks in the middle of their season. I put this show as a top contender…but it’ll honestly be a pretty big surprise if it breaks through.

3. CURB YOUR ENTHUSIASM - Pros: The oldest of all the contenders on this list, the show has been nominated every they’ve been eligible since season season 2. The is still popular among fans and still creates buzzed about comedy moments. I haven’t watched this season, but apparently there’s an episode called “Palestine Chicken” that’s very popular and even won a Director’s Guild Award this season. It’s a testament that no matter how new shows premiere, or crowded a certain year is, the voters are still able to find room for this show. And there’s no reason why they shouldn’t this year. Cons: In terms of Emmys, despite all their nominees, they’ve only won one Emmy for Direction in 2003. With all those snubs, it might be easy for voters to drop the show completely after 10 years in favor of newer shows. That contradicts what I just wrote earlier but…I’m sticking to it!

4. GIRLS - Pros: Although the show just finished its first season, it has received some of most laudatory reviews of the season. The show offers a somewhat raw, yet humorous look into the lives of four young, college educated women in New York City. And the show has just been nominated for the 2 separate Critics Awards which is very good buzz for the Emmys. Cons: Yeah, the show has some pretty big cons. One, the show’s gotten widespread criticism for many things including lack of diversity, unlikable leading characters, and the fact that some of the actresses have famous parents (nepotism?) Also, while most critics love this show, a lot of “regular people” do not. Some people in the industry may feel venom for Dunham because she’s accomplished so much at such a young age, and some people may feel she hasn’t paid enough dues yet and that she’s more lucky than talented. And, last, this is a new show…so only time will tell whether the voters will embrace the show as much as critics. Let’s not forget: Friday Night Lights got amazing reviews during it’s first season, but didn’t walk away with the nomination. Girls, despite it being a comedy, could suffer that same fate.

5. GLEE - Pros: The show has been nominated the last two years. Actually, it’s gotten a lot of nominations for the last two years. Although it hasn’t won for Best Comedy Series, it has gotten some key wins for Jane Lynch, the direction, and the guest performances. The show has been a pretty heavy Awards favorite for these three seasons, getting nominations/wins for the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. And if the voters have kids who are Gleeks, then they’ll probably vote for this show just to make their kids happy. Cons: Save for a few episodes, this season has largely been criticized by professional reviewers and fans alike. It joins the ranks of High School Musical, with people hating it and loving it at the same time (but most hating it). This is a very divisive show. And the fact that the show didn’t receive any Directing or Writing nominations last year after winning the Directing category the year before shows that the show’s Emmy stock could gradually be getting lower and lower until it’s out completely. This could be the year that happens.

6. LOUIE - Pros: The show received some surprising nominations last year, including for writing and its lead actor, Louie. Those nominations were definitely deserved. They would also be deserving of those nominations for this season, which featured some stand out episodes including “Joan” and “Duckling”. The show is also a near lock for lead actor and writing, a series nod wouldn’t be too off. Oh! And the show has gotten very positive reviews and has already received other award nominations for their second season. Cons: Outside the stand up scenes, this show can be very dramatic. There are probably some voters who prefer a more traditional comedy, as opposed to this new-agey dramedy that most shows nowadays have inherited from Ally McBeal. (Think when Melissa McCarthy beat front runner Laura Linney last year). Also, the Emmys have never been too kind to cable comedies…esp. basic cable comedies. Louie may not be able to break that tradition.

7. MODERN FAMILY - Pros: The show has done very well with awards these last two years, winning Golden Globes, SAG Awards and other major/critics awards. The show also won Comedy Series for the last 2 years, ending 30 Rock’s seemingly unstoppable streak during their first year. All 6 of the adult actors were nominated for an Emmy last year, with 5 of them nominated the year before. Three of the actors have won Emmys. They’ve also won for directing and writing. In short…the show is a bonafide favorite in all realms of the industry. And it’s not only expected to get a third nomination…it’s pretty much expected to get a third win. Cons: Nothing, honestly. When a show gets a lot of awards, it begins to get backlash (30 Rock has gone through the same thing since season 2). That’s just petty criticism and it’s not going to affect anything…

8. NEW GIRL - Pros: This has become one of the more successful new comedies of this season, receiving high ratings, a few award nominations, and instant recognition for star Zooey Deschanel, Max Greenfield and the creator Liz Meriwether. And while the reviews in the beginning were promising, yet very shaky, a lot of early dissenters have had a radical change of heart. This is exactly what happened to 30 Rock during their first season. And we all know what happened to that show. So, yes, New Girl could be the next 30 Rock. Cons: One, some people still don’t like Deschanel’s overly quirky/adorkable performance. And she’s the star of the show. If those haters can’t look past her performance then, yeah, they won’t vote for this show. On the contrary, voters who love Deschanel may, again, not be able to look past her, only vote for her, and ignore the show itself completely. Ain’t that the pits!

9. THE OFFICE - Pros: This is another Emmy favorite, having won Comedy Series for their second season, and having been nominated every year since then. The show is still NBC’s highest rated comedy (although that’s not saying much). And the show still recently received a SAG nomination for ensemble showing that other people in the industry still appreciate the performers on the show. Cons: Frankly, ever since Steve Carell left the series, the show has not been the same. The quality has noticeably gone down this season, and everyone from fans to critics have noticed. The bad reviews for this season have been too hard to ignore, and I really believe that the voters won’t “rubber stamp” this one. Early prediction – this is definitely the year The Office drops out.

10. PARKS AND RECREATION - Pros: While The Office is getting worse reviews, Parks has gotten better and better reviews. I have met very few people who dislike this show. It seems to make every person’s top 10 list. In short, it’s a much loved series like Community. Unlike Community, the show has picked up some Emmy nominations, including for its lead Amy Poehler and the show itself last year. It also just received its first nominations from the Producers Guild and Writers Guild, showing that it’s still picking up steam. Even though the show hasn’t done as well with Emmy nominations as some of the other contenders, I believe this is the one show that could actually beat Modern Family. Cons: Again, in its last two years (let’s not count the first season), the show has only picked up four nominations, and no directing or writing nominations. But with some other shows losing stock, Parks should most definitely be fine.

11. 30 ROCK - Pros: Let’s not even bother to list all the Emmys 30 Rock have won. It’s an Emmy powerhouse, having won for Comedy Series for three years, and having been nominated the two years after that. The show has also won a multitude of awards from other organizations. Although nowadays the show is overshadowed by some of the newer shows, it’s still a favorite among critics and viewers. And, in its 6th season, the show is still trying new and exciting things, like live shows and elaborate parodies. Cons: The show hasn’t won an Emmy since its third season despite all the nominations. Although these last two seasons has gotten better reviews than season 4, people still say the show is “showing its age.” And for this season, the show didn’t get nominated for any of the Critics awards. Let’s just say…this show isn’t as strong of a lock as its been in the past…unfortunately.

12. VEEP - Pros: In its 8 episode first season, the show has already gotten great reviews. And with Emmy favorite Julia Louis Dreyfuss starring in the show, voters will definitely take notice and realize how hilarious the show is. If voters love fast, political humor that’s incredibly intelligent but also easy to understand…then this show could be a major surprise come July. Cons: It’s a new show. Who knows?

FYI Other contenders include: Desperate Housewives, Enlightened, Entourage, How I Met Your Mother, Raising Hope, Up All Night

Longshots Worth Mentioning: The Big C, Cougar Town, Hot in Cleveland, House of Lies, It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, The Middle, Nurse Jackie

Shows with no chance that I still really love: 2 Broke Girls, Don’t Trust the B, Family Guy (kill me)

Read the ballots (link posted above) to see who else was submitted. Thanks for reading! Drama Series coming tomorrow. Should be intense.

2012
06/18
CATEGORY
30 rock
awards
emmy awards
emmys
fox
glee
nbc
nominations
predictions
reflection
review
television
tv
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3 comments

2012 Emmys Pre-Nominations Top Contenders (Supporting Actress in a Drama Series)


Interestingly enough, there was a time when, before the actual nominations came out, voters would narrow down all the contenders to the “top 10″. They obviously don’t do that anymore. But…we can still assume which contenders are at the top of the voter’s minds. Before I release my official nomination predictions around early July, I am going to run down which 10 or so contenders are the biggest threats…and maybe some personal long shots that I believe voters should consider. Here we go!

I am basing the category placements, based on the official ballots which were just released. Here they are.

For more Emmy discussion, visit my Emmy page.

In alphabetical order, here are the top contenders for Supporting Actress in a Drama Series…

1. MORENA BACCARIN [Homeland] - Pros: As the wife of an American soldier who’s been held in captive, her character became more and more prominent and central as the season possessed. And Baccarin has gotten her fair share of acclaim for her performance. The show is picking up a lot of buzz. Some of the buzz could affect Baccarin’s chances. Cons: She admittedly still over shadowed by her other cast members. Even though she’s in a category separate from her co-stars, voters could still push aside in favor of them…even if they are, again, in separate categories.

2. CHRISTINE BARANSKI [The Good Wife] - Pros: She won her first Emmy in 1995, and since then, she has been nominated for 8 Emmys, including 2 for The Good Wife. This was a particularly strong season for Baranski, I would say even stronger than her first 2 seasons. If voters truly liked Baranski, then her nomination should be obvious. Cons: If the show loses its Emmy “power” this year (and that is a possibility), and if voters only want to vote for one supporting actress from the show, then voters will most likely vote for Emmy winner Archie Panjabi in favor of Baranski.

3. ROSE BYRNE [Damages] - Pros: She’s been nominated for 2 Emmys and 2 Golden Globes. Last year her show wasn’t eligible which explains why she wasn’t nominated. Naturally, she should be able to slide back in where she left off…especially if voters still remember her performance from Bridesmaids. I don’t watch the show so I don’t know how her actual performance stacks up. Cons: After a year off, voters may forget her and may have moved on, especially if she’s competing against the ladies of Mad Men, The Good Wife, or even Game of Thrones.

4. MICHELLE FORBES [The Killing] - Pros: She received a nomination last year for her stand out performance. So…yeah, she’s technically a contender. Cons: This is another show I haven’t watched at all this season, so I have no idea how much her performance stacks up this year. Actually, I haven’t heard any buzz for her performance this year from anyone…or for the show itself. With all the negative press The Killing has gotten (and is still getting), it pretty much significantly decreases her chances of scoring a second nomination.

5. ANNA GUNN [Breaking Bad] - Pros: This was a big season for Gunn, with her character arguably positioned more in the center of the show’s main arc. With a bigger role should come a better chance at getting a nomination. Ironically, this is the first year she competed in supporting, as opposed to lead, which could also maybe increase her chances. The show is already an Emmy favorite, and this season is expected to do very well. Maybe someone outside of Aaron Paul and Bryan Cranston will finally get a nomination. Cons: There are still some people who dislike her character for one reason or other. If voters focus on the character as opposed to Gunn’s performance, then, yeah, she’ll be snubbed again.

6. CHRISTINA HENDRICKS [Mad Men] - Pros: She was nominated for the last two years. With Mad Men having their best season ever, Hendricks is virtually a lock for a nomination, probably moreso than all the other contenders. And she’s sexy…rowr. Cons: Hm…if voters are turned off about some of the things Joan did during this season, then they might take it personally and not vote for her. That would speak worse of the voter than the actress IMO…

7. ANJELICA HUSTON [Smash] - Pros: Six time Emmy nominee, Oscar winner Anjelica Huston was receiving a ridiculous amount of buzz months before the pilot aired. And while the show has received some less than stellar reviews, some are still very laudatory towards Huston and her performance. This is Smash’s best chance at getting a major nomination. Cons: Again, the reviews for the show have not been great. When a show itself gets bad reviews, voters tend to ignore the individual elements of the show, including the otherwise fine performances.

8. JANUARY JONES [Mad Men] - Pros: It took two years of fan complaints, but Jones finally received her first nomination for Leading Actress for the third season. During the fourth season, when her role was greatly reduced, she made the mistake of submitting herself for Lead again against Elizabeth Moss and failed to get a nomination. This season, with the fact she’s absent for like half the episodes, she did the smart thing and submitted in Supporting. With her character going through jealously and weight gain, she had a couple stand out moments this season, thus making her at least a top contender. Cons: I really like Jones and her character…but a lot of other people don’t. They don’t like her character, and they don’t like the two episodes where Jones had a main role. That, along with the fact she appeared so little this season (and her reportedly icy attitude in real life), makes her very very vulnerable.

9. KELLY MACDONALD [Boardwalk Empire] - Pros: She won an Emmy for her first nomination in 2006 for the TV movie The Girl in the Cafe. She received a nomination for the show’s first season last year has gotten two Golden Globe nominations. As the most prominent female on the show, she stands out to the Emmy voters who already clearly like her. Cons: Her performance is very subtle and isn’t as outwardly explosive as some of the others (at least that’s what I got from the first season…I have not watched the second season). So…if voters are impatient, they may decide to drop her.

10. MARY MCDONNELL [The Closer] - Pros: She was consistently snubbed for a nomination during her Battlestar Galactica days. She recently received a nomination for Guest Actress for her role on this show, signifying that maybe voters do like this role better. And there have many times when an actor was nominated for Guest in one year, then Supporting in the next (think Alan Cumming from The Good Wife). With a spin off to come after this last season of The Closer, her character is obviously popular and well received enough to get another nod. Cons: If she couldn’t get a nomination for Battlestar Galactica despite the cries and threats of fans, then maybe the regard for McDonnell is just naturally not that high.

11. SANDRA OH [Grey's Anatomy] - Pros: She was nominated from the show’s first season to the fifth. She’s won a Golden Globe and a SAG Award. She is constantly singled as the strongest asset of the show. This season, with her character separating from her husband, she had some really “baity”episodes that might get her some notice from the voters. Cons: She hasn’t been nominated for the last 2 years now. IMO, she didn’t deserve those snubs…but she got them anyway. It probably has to do with the voters’ overall fatigue for the show. It’s too bad Oh has to suffer for bad writing, something she can’t control. Oh well!

12. ARCHIE PANJABI [The Good Wife] - Pros: She won her first Emmy for the first season of the show. She got another nomination last year. Like Oh, she is constantly singled as the best thing about her show. Cons: She doesn’t have as much of a stand out episode as she did the last season. However, I’d argue she didn’t have much of a stand out episode when she won for the first season. So, yeah, that shouldn’t hurt her much.

13. MAGGIE SMITH [Downton Abbey] - I’m not going to discuss any outside achievement Smith has had. We all know who Maggie Smith is. Even the younger generation recognizes her for those movies starring that teenage wizard. The fact of the matter is she won an Emmy last year. And she’s pretty much the strongest/funnest thing about this very popular British drama. She’s safe. She’s totally safe. Cons: The only con is that her character doesn’t do anything dramatic or soapy. But, in all honesty, that just makes her stand out more.

FYI Other contenders include: Emilia Clarke, Michelle Fairley, and Lena Headey (Game of Thrones), Joanne Froggart (Downton Abbey), Sharon Gless (Burn Notice), and Kiernan Shipka (Mad Men)

Longshots Worth Mentioning: Lorraine Bracco (Rizzoli & Isles), Jennifer Carpenter (Dexter), Regina King (Southland), Connie Nielsen (Boss), Chandra Wilson (Grey’s Anatomy)

Other longshots I recommend: The two rivals from Smash (Megan Hilty and Katharine McPhee), the sassy Loretta Devine from The Client List, the spunky Emma Kenney from Shameless, Kim Raver and Jessica Capshaw from Grey’s Anatomy, and Morgan Saylor (the daughter from Homeland).

Read the ballots (link posted above) to see who else was submitted. Thanks for reading! Comedy Series and Drama Series are the last two left for this section.

2012
06/17
CATEGORY
awards
breaking bad
drama
emmy awards
emmys
grey's anatomy
nominations
predictions
reflection
review
snubbed
television
the good wife
tv
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