Hey guys! Hey guys! Hey guys! So, I know I’m a bit late with this post. In fact, I wanted to have this written before the Creative Arts Emmys so I could post my predictions for the Guest acting categories. But between relatives visiting and the internet shutting down for two days…I just couldn’t write this post during the time I wanted. But there are still a bunch of categories left so…let’s get on with this! Here are my final predictions for the major categories.
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Miniseries: Sigh…if only True Detective had submitted here, then we’d have a real race. But, right now, (unless the Academy wants to throw overdue recognition Treme‘s way), this is Fargo’s to lose.
Movie: Sherlock won four Emmys last Sunday, signifying widespread support for the program. However…I think the buzz and acclaim for The Normal Heart is too great for it to lose this one at this point. It’s in the same league as past HBO champs (Game Change, Behind the Candelabra, Grey Gardens, Recount, and Temple Grandin).
Actress: If I overthought this, I could think of an argument for each of the nominees (including the Critics Choice Award winner Jessica Lange). But, if I played it safe, then past Emmy favorite Cicely Tyson would win for the role that gave Geraldine Page her first Oscar.
Actor: Mark Ruffalo’s performance is surely explosive and Emmy bait…but it’s also a bit polarizing. I think this is between the Fargo guys, and it looks like the more recognizable American star will take this: Billy Bob Thornton.
Supporting Actress: Besides Frances Conroy, any of these ladies could win. I honestly don’t see American Horror Story doing all that well, so Bates and Bassett won’t win. Never underestimate Burstyn…but at the same time, she just won last year. Another win would be too much. Julia Roberts is the big star and a few months ago, she was deemed the front runner in this category. However, Allison Tolman‘s performance has received more consistent praise. She is a breakout star and if voters love Fargo like I think they do, then I think Tolman will be able to beat her more famous fellow nominees.
Supporting Actor: I could see Martin Freeman winning an Emmy just because he was nominated in two categories. However, Matt Bomer got the most praise out of anyone else in the movie. He’s The Normal Heart‘s best chance at winning an acting award IMO.
Writing and Directing: So, right now, Fargo and The Normal Heart are the two biggest contenders in this category. I think there will be a split in there categories. The first episode of Fargo will win for Writing, while Ryan Murphy will win the Emmy for directing The Normal Heart. However…the reverse could happen as well. Or maybe one program will just dominate. We will see!
Comedy Series: Veep has slowly become a major Emmy contender, while Orange is the New Black was one of the buzziest shows of the last year. But, once again, I’m playing it safe and predicting Modern Family. Like The Daily Show or The Amazing Race, I am pretty much always going to predict Modern Family until it actually loses. This was apparently a strong season for Modern Family and if voters liked it enough last year…then this year might not be different. Besides, Orange is too dramatic and half and hour too long.
Actress: The only other actress I could see legitimately beat Julia Louis-Dreyfus is Melissa McCarthy, whose tape is an Emmy bait mixture of multi-camera broadness and emotion. Anyone else would surely be a surprise.
Actor: Playing it safe is my middle name. Jim Parsons seems to be the favorite for his 100th Emmy. However, watch out for Ricky Gervais whose tape will make voters tear up a bit. Remember when Gervais won for Extras???
Supporting Actress: I didn’t think Allison Janney would win Guest Actress. But she did…but that doesn’t change anything. If anything, it might validate this prediction. Janney is going to win two Emmys this year. But if we’re in for a surprise like we got last year then Anna Chlumsky is surely a “Merritt Wever-sized” dark horse.
Supporting Actor: It just doesn’t seem like Modern Family has the same widespread support it had a couple years ago. Jesse Tyler Ferguson has the strongest tape in this category…but I think Tony Hale will win again for his now iconic scene he shares with JLD. If Brooklyn Nine Nine had received more support, then maybe I would have more faith in Andre Braugher.
Writing: Orange is the New Black‘s pilot might seem like an easy way for the show to win. But…Louis CK has won in this category before…and I think he will win again for a much stronger episode in my opinion. “So Did the Fat Lady.”
Directing: Modern Family has actually won this category the last three years. I mean, it even beat 30 Rock‘s finale last year. However, Jodie Foster’s star power plus Orange‘s buzz plus a story line involving a transgender woman will equal “Lesbian Request Denied” winning.
Drama Series: I’m biting the bullet and saying that Breaking Bad will have a very good Emmy night. If it could win last year, it can surely win again for its explosive final group of episodes. And yeah, True Detective received a lot of praise and buzz…but I don’t think it received any more than (or even as much as) Breaking Bad.
Actress: I never thought I would be predicting Claire Danes (hell, I thought her getting nominated would be a small miracle)…but I have to admit, she submitted a great episode. Margulies would be my number one choice…but she was snubbed last year…and her submission this year wasn’t so different from her submission from season 3. And, yes, Robin Wright and Kerry Washington could win for their performances in hot, buzzy shows. But, since I can’t choose between either of those actresses…I think voters will face the same problem and just simply choose last year’s winner because, hey, the season sucked, but Danes still did a great job. I think this race would be a lot simpler, if the best drama actress (cough cough Maslany) had actually received a nomination. Oh well. Watch me be wrong about this one!
Actor: This was another tough one for me. The last three winners (Kyle Chandler, Damien Lewis, Jeff Daniels) have been fairly surprising, so technically any of these nominees could win. However, I’m going to listen to the buzz and say that it’s really between recent Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey and three time winner Bryan Cranston. Bryan Cranston has a better submission and, in my opinion, gives the stronger overall performance. However, voters may not be completely willing to give Cranston a fourth Emmy. McConaughey got just as much praise for his performance as Bryan Cranston did for his. I think between his praise and the exciting idea of hearing another crazy, rambling speech…I think Matthew McConaughey will win this one…unless Jeff Daniels wins again.
Supporting Actress: Maggie Smith recently won a SAG for some reason…but I don’t see her (or anyone else in the Downton Abbey cast) winning. Anna Gunn has the most explosive tape of the mix. If voters want to give Baranski an overdue Emmy for her great work this season then they can…but it looks like Gunn is going to win another deserved Emmy.
Supporting Actor: Most people seem to be predicting Aaron Paul, Peter Dinklage or even veteran Jon Voight. But, fun fact: The Good Wife has received one acting win for each of the last four years. If an actor from the show is going to win, I think previously nominated Josh Charles will finally get the award. Not only did he have a buzzy arc that ended in the unfortunate surprise death of his character, but his episode submission is probably the best episode The Good Wife has ever created. If The Good Wife had received the Drama Series nomination it was supposed to, I’d feel more confident about this nomination. Right now…this is one of my bolder picks.
Writing: “Ozymandias” not receiving a directing nomination makes me nervous…but I still think the most talked about dramatic episode of the season has the edge. However, the Breaking Bad finale would be an “easier” way for voters for award the show and the show’s creator.
Directing: House of Cards won this award last year. And Boardwalk Empire has always done well in this category. But, I think this is a race between Breaking Bad, True Detective, and Game of Thrones – three expertly directed episodes. True Detective’s episode has a really epic continuous tracking shot of a shootout, while Game of Thrones‘s episode is simply one big, explosive battle. However, I think, for a finale, Vince Gilligan did a great job pretty much giving everything the audience asked for. Breaking Bad has never won in this category. “Felina” should be that episode.
OK…those are pretty much the categories I care about the most. Thanks for reading. Check back Monday night or Tuesday morning for my recap/review of the ceremony and the winners.
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